Difference between revisions of "Scenario thinking"

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== Scenario Work ==
Scenario thinking is a form of [[role play]] to explore future possibilities. Stuart Candy wrote a nice [https://futuryst.blogspot.com/2018/10/experiential-futures-brief-outline.html introduction] with pointers to other good references and work.
 
= Scenario Work =
 
Publicly available scenario work that others have done:
Publicly available scenario work that others have done:


* [[Mont Fleur Scenarios]]
* [http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/03/future_tense_emerging_technologies_society_and_policy_.html Future Tense]. Collaboration between ''Slate'', New America Foundation, and Arizona State University
* [http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2012/03/future_tense_emerging_technologies_society_and_policy_.html Future Tense]. Collaboration between ''Slate'', New America Foundation, and Arizona State University
* [http://www.stanford2025.com/#intro Stanford 2025]
* [http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press/PR_FILES/the_future_kitchen.html Kitchens in 2040] (IKEA report)
* [http://www.ikea.com/ms/en_GB/about_ikea/press/PR_FILES/the_future_kitchen.html Kitchens in 2040] (IKEA report)
* [http://tbdcatalog.com/ TBD Catalog]
= Examples of Preferred Futures =
Many of these were drawn from Stuart's [https://twitter.com/futuryst/status/1242893298848739330 Twitter thread]. See also [[Visioning]].
* [https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/nasa-space-colony-art NASA's 1970s space habitat images]
* Hazel Henderson, Fritjof Capra. [https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/03/19/pandemic-retrospect-looking-back-coronavirus-2050 "A Pandemic in Retrospect — Looking Back on Coronavirus From 2050."] March 19, 2020.
* Kate Aronoff, Alyssa Battistoni, Daniel Aldana Cohen, Thea Riofrancos. ''[https://www.versobooks.com/books/3107-a-planet-to-win A Planet to Win: Why We Need a Green New Deal.]'' November 2019.
* [http://solarpunkfestival.com/history/ Solarpunk]. Images of a renewable future. Started in Brazil in 2000s.
* [https://www.vox.com/2018/12/27/18137571/what-is-hopepunk-noblebright-grimdark Hopepunk]
* Sitra and Demos Helsinki's, [https://www.sitra.fi/en/the-next-era/ The Next Era]. More from Sitra's Mikko Dufva's [https://vimeo.com/387256165 talk].
* [https://esra.nz/global-tech-elite-imagine-future/ How the Global Tech Elite Imagine the Future.] For better or for worse.
* [https://goodanthropocenes.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/anthropocene-visioning-workshop-report_final.pdf Report on the Anthropocene Visioning Workshop, November 2016]
* [https://www.stockholmresilience.org/research/research-news/2020-03-18-four-positive-future-visions-of-southern-africa.html Four Positive Future Visions of Southern Africa]
* [https://www.phaidon.com/agenda/architecture/articles/2013/september/18/introducing-the-world-we-made/ Introducing The World We Made]
* [https://gsg.org/scenario_descriptions.html Global Scenario Group Scenario Descriptions]
* [https://minneapolis2040.com/ Minneapolis 2040]
Fictional:
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_series Iaian M. Banks's Culture series]
* [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Star_Maker Olaf Stapledon's Star Maker]
= Process =
== Delphi Method ==
The original forecasting method was invented by [[wikipedia:Olaf Helmer|Olaf Helmer]] (the co-founder of Institute for the Future) while he was at RAND in the 1950s.<ref>http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/our-future-history-the-origins-of-modern-forecasting/</ref><ref>Helmer, Olaf. [https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3558.pdf "Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method."] RAND. March 1967.</ref> It was an expert-oriented system that attempted to use anonymous questionnaires that were summarized and reflected back in order to avoid groupthink.
== Major Life Moments ==
This exercise was inspired by [https://medium.com/signal-geopolitics-made-simple/impetuous-trump-global-generation-gaps-and-the-worlds-scariest-squirrel-747afc10b52f this article], which notes:
<blockquote>Our life experience shapes what we want, what we hope for, what we fear, and what we think. Our generation has different expectations and assumptions about the world than our parents, and a new era gives our children perspectives that are distinctly different from ours....</blockquote>
<blockquote>Russians under 24 won’t remember Russia before Putin, and those under 34 have no memory of the Soviet Union. South Africans younger than 30 won’t have clear memories of apartheid. They know the African National Congress as the party of power, not the party of liberation. Chinese under 35 can’t recall a time when their country was not the world’s rising economic power. Iranians under 45 have no memory of life before the revolution. French, Italians, and Germans younger than 22 have never paid for a meal with francs, lira or Deutsche Marks. Brazilians younger than 39 and Nigerians under 25 have no experience of military rule. Americans under 23 won’t remember the world before 9/11. Those under 34 didn’t experience the Cold War. Those under 53 won’t remember racial segregation. Something to think about when trying to predict what citizens will want from their governments.</blockquote>


== Incorporating Online Tools ==  
These generational shifts in worldview are likely what lead to [[historical cycles]] (and are also why this site is "Faster Than ''20''").
 
We can map these by looking at major moments in history as well as population trends in age demographics, then do thought experiments based on this data. This might also be an opportunity to build a tool.
 
== Control Wars ==
 
[https://becoming.network/cw.html becoming.network's Control Wars]
* [https://theinfluencers.org/en/automated-control-wars Automated Control Wars]
* [https://medium.com/@jacwex/design-as-performance-with-grace-polifrono-turtle-4cf0e7e8fdc7 Design as Performance with Grace Polifrono Turtle]
* [https://medium.com/@Graceleoturtle/experiential-design-fictions-and-futures-xdf-addcb413cc88 Experimental Futures: Generative design futuring and performative worldbuilding]
 
= Toolkits =
 
* Institute For the Future's [https://medium.com/foresight-matters/iftf-foresight-tool-map-complex-impacts-during-a-time-of-uncertainty-94801ed93e79 Map Cross-Impacts]
* Stuart Candy and Jeff Watson's [[The Thing From The Future]] card deck
 
= Incorporating Online Tools =
Scenario thinking has largely been practiced as a face-to-face process. However, there have been some explorations into integrating [[online tools]] into the process, and there are more opportunities to experiment.
Scenario thinking has largely been practiced as a face-to-face process. However, there have been some explorations into integrating [[online tools]] into the process, and there are more opportunities to experiment.


=== Scan ===  
== Scan ==


* survey
* survey
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* [[Foresight Engine]]
* [[Foresight Engine]]


=== Deliberation ===  
== Deliberation ==


* [[Choosing online tools]]
* [[Choosing online tools]]


== See Also ==
= See Also =
 
GBN has [http://www.gbn.com/consulting/planning.php great materials] (both introductory and case examples) on scenario thinking. In particular, Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton's ''[http://www.gbn.com/consulting/article_details.php?id=27&breadcrumb=consulting What If?: The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits]'' is an excellent introduction.
GBN has [http://www.gbn.com/consulting/planning.php great materials] (both introductory and case examples) on scenario thinking. In particular, Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton's ''[http://www.gbn.com/consulting/article_details.php?id=27&breadcrumb=consulting What If?: The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits]'' is an excellent introduction.


Other materials of interest:
Other materials of interest:
* [http://scenarioplanningtools.org/ Opening access to scenario planning tools] ([http://blog.placematters.org/2012/04/24/changing-planning-paradigm/ changing the planning paradigm])
* [http://scenarioplanningtools.org/ Opening access to scenario planning tools] ([http://blog.placematters.org/2012/04/24/changing-planning-paradigm/ changing the planning paradigm])
* [[Mont Fleur Scenarios]]
* Gail Taylor's blog post, [http://www.tomorrowmakers.org/journal/2012/8/4/scan-and-play.html "Scan and Play"]
* Gail Taylor's blog post, [http://www.tomorrowmakers.org/journal/2012/8/4/scan-and-play.html "Scan and Play"]
== Futures Thinking ==
[[Human perception#Futures Thinking]]
[https://medium.com/s/2069 Medium Magazine 2069]
Long Now Foundation's [http://longbets.org/ Long Bets]
[https://www.futures.design/ Speculative Futures]
= References =
<references />

Latest revision as of 04:41, 24 January 2022

40x40px This is a Work-In-Progress. Feel free to edit!

Scenario thinking is a form of role play to explore future possibilities. Stuart Candy wrote a nice introduction with pointers to other good references and work.

Scenario Work

Publicly available scenario work that others have done:

Examples of Preferred Futures

Many of these were drawn from Stuart's Twitter thread. See also Visioning.

Fictional:

Process

Delphi Method

The original forecasting method was invented by Olaf Helmer (the co-founder of Institute for the Future) while he was at RAND in the 1950s.[1][2] It was an expert-oriented system that attempted to use anonymous questionnaires that were summarized and reflected back in order to avoid groupthink.

Major Life Moments

This exercise was inspired by this article, which notes:

Our life experience shapes what we want, what we hope for, what we fear, and what we think. Our generation has different expectations and assumptions about the world than our parents, and a new era gives our children perspectives that are distinctly different from ours....

Russians under 24 won’t remember Russia before Putin, and those under 34 have no memory of the Soviet Union. South Africans younger than 30 won’t have clear memories of apartheid. They know the African National Congress as the party of power, not the party of liberation. Chinese under 35 can’t recall a time when their country was not the world’s rising economic power. Iranians under 45 have no memory of life before the revolution. French, Italians, and Germans younger than 22 have never paid for a meal with francs, lira or Deutsche Marks. Brazilians younger than 39 and Nigerians under 25 have no experience of military rule. Americans under 23 won’t remember the world before 9/11. Those under 34 didn’t experience the Cold War. Those under 53 won’t remember racial segregation. Something to think about when trying to predict what citizens will want from their governments.

These generational shifts in worldview are likely what lead to historical cycles (and are also why this site is "Faster Than 20").

We can map these by looking at major moments in history as well as population trends in age demographics, then do thought experiments based on this data. This might also be an opportunity to build a tool.

Control Wars

becoming.network's Control Wars

Toolkits

Incorporating Online Tools

Scenario thinking has largely been practiced as a face-to-face process. However, there have been some explorations into integrating online tools into the process, and there are more opportunities to experiment.

Scan

Deliberation

See Also

GBN has great materials (both introductory and case examples) on scenario thinking. In particular, Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton's What If?: The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits is an excellent introduction.

Other materials of interest:

Futures Thinking

Human perception#Futures Thinking

Medium Magazine 2069

Long Now Foundation's Long Bets

Speculative Futures

References

  1. ↑ http://www.iftf.org/future-now/article-detail/our-future-history-the-origins-of-modern-forecasting/
  2. ↑ Helmer, Olaf. "Analysis of the Future: The Delphi Method." RAND. March 1967.
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