Difference between revisions of "Historical cycles"
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== Growing up with Disruptive Technology == | == Growing up with Disruptive Technology == | ||
Joshua Meyrowitz, ''No Sense of Place''. Disruptive technology + 18. | Joshua Meyrowitz, ''[http://amzn.to/2h3GPVS No Sense of Place]''. Disruptive technology + 18. | ||
TV = 1950 + 18 => 1968 | TV = 1950 + 18 => 1968 | ||
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== The Master Switch == | == The Master Switch == | ||
Tim Wu, ''The Master Switch'' | Tim Wu, ''[http://amzn.to/2hNMn7U The Master Switch]'' | ||
Cycle between open and closed "information empires." | Cycle between open and closed "information empires." | ||
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Every 80-90 years, America forced to recreate itself. See [http://civichall.org/civicist/making-peace-chaos/ Sara Robinson's piece] for a summary. | Every 80-90 years, America forced to recreate itself. See [http://civichall.org/civicist/making-peace-chaos/ Sara Robinson's piece] for a summary. | ||
=== Presidential Party Cycles === | |||
It's [https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/historic-re-election-pattern-doesnt-favor-democrats-in-2016 very rare] for presidents of one party to succeed presidents of that same party. It's even rarer when the preceding president served two terms. It's only happened twice for Democrats: | |||
* 1836, Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson, who was the first Democrat to win the presidency | |||
* 1944, Franklin Delano Roosevelt won a third term as president. He died while in office and was succeeded by Harry S. Truman, who was re-elected and ended 20 consecutive years of Democratic presidents. | |||
57% of Republicans candidates have won following a two-term Republican president, including: | |||
* Ulysses S. Grant (1868) | |||
* Rutherford B. Hayes (1876) | |||
* Theodore Roosevelt (1904) | |||
* George H.W. Bush (1988) | |||
However, with the exception of Bush, it's been very rare in recent history. | |||
On average, modern Presidents [https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/how-december-could-make-or-break-the-trump-presidency have lost 30 House seats and 4 Senate seats] in their first midterm elections. | |||
Latest revision as of 23:52, 14 September 2021
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Growing up with Disruptive Technology
Joshua Meyrowitz, No Sense of Place. Disruptive technology + 18.
TV = 1950 + 18 => 1968
Mosaic web browser => 1993 + 18 => 2011
How about things like war? Major terrorist attacks? Refugee crisis?
The Master Switch
Tim Wu, The Master Switch
Cycle between open and closed "information empires."
American Generational Cycles
William Strauss and Neil Howe, Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069. (1992)
Every 80-90 years, America forced to recreate itself. See Sara Robinson's piece for a summary.
Presidential Party Cycles
It's very rare for presidents of one party to succeed presidents of that same party. It's even rarer when the preceding president served two terms. It's only happened twice for Democrats:
- 1836, Martin Van Buren succeeded Andrew Jackson, who was the first Democrat to win the presidency
- 1944, Franklin Delano Roosevelt won a third term as president. He died while in office and was succeeded by Harry S. Truman, who was re-elected and ended 20 consecutive years of Democratic presidents.
57% of Republicans candidates have won following a two-term Republican president, including:
- Ulysses S. Grant (1868)
- Rutherford B. Hayes (1876)
- Theodore Roosevelt (1904)
- George H.W. Bush (1988)
However, with the exception of Bush, it's been very rare in recent history.
On average, modern Presidents have lost 30 House seats and 4 Senate seats in their first midterm elections.
